What is Predictful?
Predictful is a cloud-based social intelligence platform that provides organizations access to predictive insights that are not available anywhere else on mission-critical events.
How are accurate predictions made?
Your success depends on the ability to incentivize and engage your crowd of knowledgeable individuals who have insight into your organization. The Predictful platform provides the tools necessary to quickly identify those groups or individuals that have relevant knowledge on a particular market, and allows them to make their informative predictions, along with their comments and feedback.
How does the prediction process work?
As users are invited and engaged as members of your crowd, they are able to make predictions on questions such “What will our company’s quarterly sales be?” or “When will a particular project be completed?”. The questions you create are called “Markets”, and there crowd members make virtual investments on the outcome. .For the organization, they can quickly see who their top predictors are inside (and outside) of their business as outcomes occur.
How do you place a prediction?
Predictful provides an easy‐to‐use interface where individuals make predictions at any time. Predictions can numerical, date-driven, or multiple choice.
How is prediction accuracy determined?
As more crowd members make predictions, with our complex algorithm it will become more apparent as to which answer or interval range will most likely occur. This is because generally the most popular betting choice turns out to be the winning choice.
This is similar to investing in the stock market, when stock prices go up and down as more trades are made. The current price of stock would indicate the confidence level for the investor, and chances of being the correct choice for the business. But instead of using shares and their stock prices, we use a system of invested credits and a probability calculated as a percentage that an event will occur. These are the values that go up and down as more bets are made in the selected market. As a bet is made in Predictful, the percentage value and possible winnings are automatically generated and shown for any type of bet that the user wishes to make. This new bet will cause the credit value and percentage chance of winning to go up or down for all previous bets, similar to stock prices.
Can a prediction be cancelled (or sold) before the closing date?
Certainly, although this is quite a bit different from selling shares in the stock market. The prediction isn’t actually “sold” as such, but the prediction is just “sold” as the current value of the invested credits is returned to the user.
How is the score calculated?
The user’s score is calculated from two key factors: The first is the amount gained or lost relative to the initial amount invested in the market. This turns out to be a percentage, so beginners and advanced users with a higher balance have equal chances to win. The second factor is the percentage of credits invested relative to the total credits available for the user. So those that invest all their credits in a market prediction will see their scores increased or decreased much more than those that invested only a small portion of their credits (assuming they both are both winners), even though the gain/loss ratio is the same. This percentage calculation also gives beginners and advanced users and equal chance of getting higher scores. We include this second factor so people will be more apt to invest as much as possible in a bet.
So as predictions are made in the various markets, crowd members will see how they stand on the scoreboard as their scores change. The one with the highest score at the end of the round (market closing date) is eligible to win a prize, if one is available for that round.
How can I choose the right individuals to make a prediction in a market?
With each market you create, a specific set of people would be your most likely candidates for good predictors. If you were creating a market about future sales of a new product or during a specific time period, you obviously would want to include your internal sales team, marketing and outside resellers. But don’t make your crowd too narrow, as you never know which people or groups may have insider knowledge as it relates to your business. Including all of your various departments as well as specific suppliers (especially as it relates to those directly involved in the creation of your product) can provide insight that perhaps no one else can.
How do you keep the crowd engaged?
The bottom line is that your crowd needs to be motivated to make predictions about your organization. After all, they are taking time out of their busy days to share their insight for you.
Predictful provides a simple interface for organizations to provide any number of prizes for each question created. The prizes should be of value to your crowd, and there should be a fair allocation of the number of prizes based on the number of participants in your crowd. Predictful also provides real-time leaderboards and current prediction status so that users can make a real impact if they believe a current prediction to be incorrect. Finally, our tool has a messaging component that allows you to send emails to your crowd, encouraging participation in a timely manner.